In this research project, I created a new procedure to reliably track daily changes in trade policy, explicitly distinguishing between detailed timing up to the minute of announcement and implementation. This comes from processing 10K+ pages of trade documents.

Focusing on medical goods, we estimate the tariff pass-through (i.e. demand elasticity in a broader sense) in a diff-in-diffs framework.

• Abstract: Have recent tariffs resulted in increased costs for the US healthcare system? We examine US trade data and compile a database of statutory tariff changes. Tariffs on medical goods narrowly defined resulted in $3.4 Billion in duties assessed between February and July 2025–more than 10 times the same period in 2024, with a 55.8 percent rate of pass-through at the US border. We estimate that had medical goods imports observed in 2024 been subject to the statutory tariff levels prevailing in August 2025, assessed duties would have been $15.8 Billion, 30 times higher than those observed in real-time.
• The replication codebase is open access here.
• A local copy is also available here.